Natural gas production in the U.S. will be 25% greater from 2011 to 2035 than previous assessments, and the share of U.S. energy consumption accounted for by imported energy will decline to 18% of the total by 2035, according to projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) early release overview.
Issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (Washington, D.C.; www.eia.gov), the AEO2011 early release overview is an abridged version of a full report scheduled to come out in March 2011.
Among the key updates from the AEO2011 projections compared to the same ones from a year ago is a significant upgrade in the amount of shale gas resources in existing plays that can be produced at prices under $7 per 1000 ft3. The EIA says the upgrade will mean higher shale gas production overall, and cumulative natural gas production in the lower-48 U.S. states over the projection period (to 2035) of 25% higher than the level projected last year. The EIA projection is consistent with recent analyst assessments, which indicate North American chemical producers relying on natural gas a feedstock will be in a strong market position in 2011 (see story).
The upgraded resources resulted from information that has become available with more drilling activity in new and existing shale plays in the U.S. There is, however, “considerable uncertainty in the amounts of recoverable shale gas both in developed and undeveloped areas,” the EIA says, because of varying well characteristics and productivity.
The outlook report also projected that net energy imports will “meet a major, but declining, share of total U.S. energy demand.” Imports are moderated by increased use of biofuels, lowered demand from energy efficiency standards and rising energy prices, EIA adds.
Among the other findings included in the AEO2011 overview are projections about the fuels used to generate electricity. Renewable fuels and natural gas will be the fastest-growing fuels used for electricity, but coal will remain the dominant fuel because of existing capacity in coal-fired power plants, the report says.
Other projections covered greenhouse gas emissions, specifically that carbon dioxide emissions will grow slowly, but due to reductions in 2008 and 2009 “largely driven by the economic downturn,” the EIA says energy-related CO2 emissions will not reach 2005 levels of 5,980 metric tons again until 2027.
Also in the 2011 reference case projections, the EIA says that the energy intensity of the U.S. economy (as measured by primary energy use per dollar of gross domestic product) will decline by 40% from 2009 to 2035. The decline is a result of a continued shift away from energy intensive manufacturing to services, as well as growing energy efficiency.
The industrial sector consumed about one-third of the total delivered energy in the U.S. in 2009, EIA says, and consumption in 2035, as projected in the 2011 reference case, is 2.2 million Btu higher than the same assessment from last year. Most of the increase is accounted for by natural gas, EIA says. The largest users of energy in the industrial sector are bulk chemicals, refining, paper, mining and construction.