Global chemical output is expected to grow 7.2% in 2010, the American Chemistry Council (Arlington, Va.; www.americanchemistry.com) says in its just released 2nd Quarter 2010 Situation & Outlook report.
The anticipated 2010 gain will be followed by a more moderate 5.0% gain in global chemical output for 2011, ACC says in its report, which projects economic developments to 2014.
Globally, ACC expects growth in emerging markets to outpace that in developed countries, and that growth in global chemical output beyond 2011 will moderate, but rise at a rate 1.2 times that of the general economic growth.
In the U.S., chemical output is expected to grow 6.0% in 2010, 4.0% in 2011 and 3.6% in 2012. "Chemical production will rise solidly in all regions in 2010, with the strongest gains in the Gulf Coast and Ohio Valley regions," the ACC report says.
In 2011, it is possible that "strong growth in exports and slower growth in imports may result in the first trade surplus in chemicals since 2001," ACC points out.
The wider U.S. economy, ACC says, has "reached a transition phase, shifting from an economy driven by inventory changes (end of destocking and start of restocking) and stimulus spending, to one that is self-sustaining." Further, the major end-use markets for the chemical industry are "experiencing strong recovery," ACC remarks.
However, the ACC report cautions that despite the fact that the domestic economy is enjoying moderate growth, the recovery "remains fragile and there are many risks."